California’s population issues could lead the state to losing four seats in the House of Representatives after the 2030 census is completed, according to a new study.
The American Redistricting Project – a website developed by nonpartisan nonprofit Fair Lines America Foundation – released its latest 2030 apportionment forecast on Tuesday.
The backstory: Following the 2020 census, California’s delegation in the House of Representatives dropped from 53 members to 52.
- That was because the Golden State had limited growth over the previous decade.
The big picture: The American Redistricting Project uses a weighted average growth rate applied to the July 1, 2023, estimates of the nation’s population to produce its forecast.
- The organization is projecting California to lose four seats in Congress, which would be the greatest loss in the nation.
- New York is projected to be right behind, losing three seats, while Illinois would follow by dropping two.
- On the other hand, Texas is expected to gain four seats through reapportionment. Florida is looking at adding three seats, while Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia would each add one under the American Redistricting Project’s model.