A new study ahead of the election details how Proposition 47, passed by California voters a decade ago, has led to higher crime and drug use throughout the Golden State.
The study was conducted by the Manhattan Institute, and ties into Proposition 36, which would repeal parts of Proposition 47.
The backstory: Proposition 47, known as the Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act, passed with nearly 60% of the vote in 2014.
- It reclassified most drug offenses and property thefts valued under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors.
Driving the news: Proposition 36, which is on the November ballot, would make property crimes worth $950 or less a felony if someone has two or more past convictions for certain theft crimes.
- It also would lengthen some felony sentences and bring felony charges for fentanyl offenses.
The big picture: The study from the Manhattan Institute found Proposition 47 shifted dynamics in offender behavior and prosecutorial decision making that damage public safety and public health.
- It found that Proposition 47 increased re-offending, detention times, failures to appear in court, warrants issued on offenders, case dismissals in conjunction with plea deals and the persistence levels of drug and theft offenders.
- The study also found a significant drop in sentencing and in arrests, partly because of the diminished incentive for businesses to report thefts.
What they’re saying: “These shifts have also resulted in fewer defendants participating in in-custody drug treatment programs or other mandatory, supervised services because the incentives for doing so (avoiding prosecution and significant sentences) have evaporated,” the study reads.
- “And, as California business owners can attest, reducing the cost of repeatedly committing theft removes the incentive for offenders to change their behavior. This has fueled increases in organized retail theft and fencing rings.”
Go deeper: According to the study, the total number of felony cases decreased by nearly 30% after Proposition 47 was passed, while misdemeanor cases only rose by about 3.5%. The total number of unique defendants decreased by over 23% for felons, while dropping 2.3% for misdemeanants.
- There was an increase of over 60% in the number of misdemeanor cases that led to a warrant being issued after Proposition 47 passed.
- There was also a surge in case dismissals in conjunction with plea deals. Before Proposition 47 was passed, defendants who would be affected by the initiative had 1.5 cases on average dismissed with a plea agreement. That number rose to nearly four cases dismissed along with an offer of a plea agreement – a 166% increase that suggests the initiative did not deter defendants from committing more crimes.
- The study also found the average case length increased by 74% after Proposition 47 was passed.
- Further, the study found a 10.3% increase in the share of drug offenders who were chronic drug offenders. The share of theft offenders who were chronic theft offenders also increased by 6.3%.
- Serious felony referrals increased by nearly 23%, convictions increased by 20%, arrests involving a victim increased by 42% and convictions involving a victim increased by nearly 36% after Proposition 47 was passed.
