Schiff, Porter lead Senate race in latest poll

The two Southern California Congressional representatives are the early favorites to be California’s next Senator, although many voters still remain undecided.

California voters appear to be gravitating toward two Democratic candidates for the Senate race to take over longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat when her final term in office ends in January 2025. 

The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, has Rep. Adam Schiff (D–Burbank) and Rep. Katie Porter (D–Irvine) leading the pack. 


The big picture: Schiff takes the top spot in the poll at 20 percent, with Porter coming in just behind at 17 percent. 

  • While the two southern California Congressional representatives are far from having a commanding lead in the race, they each have over double the support of Rep. Barbara Lee (D–Oakland), who polled at seven percent. 
  • James Bradley was the top Republican at 10 percent, and Republican Erick Early polled at seven percent. 
  • Republicans could have another candidate in former baseball star Steve Garvey, who had a career from 1969 to 1987 with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. 
  • If Garvey enters the race, which he is reportedly considering, he would have 5 percent support, while Bradley’s polling number drops to seven as well and Early sees his support fall to five percent. 
  • At 32 percent, a significant number of California voters remain undecided. 

Go deeper: Schiff’s early lead is due in part to his name recognition throughout California, coming in at 75 percent. Porter was next in line at 57 percent name recognition. 

  • Schiff also led the field with 43 percent of voters offering a favorable opinion of him, although he also polled at 32 percent unfavorable. Porter came in at 38 percent and 19 percent, respectively. 
  • Independents are split on Schiff and Porter, giving them 17 and 16 percent support, respectively. Schiff leads among Democrats at 31 percent while Porter pulled in 26 percent. 
  • Young voters ages 18-29 strongly favor Porter at 27 percent, followed by Lee at 11 percent. Schiff only has six percent support from that age range. 
  • However, Schiff is far more popular among older generations, pulling in his highest numbers in the 65 and older bracket at 29 percent, while Porter was down at 16 percent. Garvey polled third-highest in the oldest age group at 10 percent. 
  • Schiff also holds a slight lead among females at 19 percent, compared to 17 percent for Porter. 
  • Central Valley voters have Schiff with a slim lead at 17 percent, while 14 percent of them support Porter and 9 percent support Garvey and Bradley each.
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