A new poll finds Southern California Reps. Katie Porter (D–Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D–Glendale) leading the pack to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and her short-term successor Laphonza Butler.
Despite that, at least two contenders are making gains in the race, leaving pollsters to deem the contest wide open for a November 2024 runoff.
Digging into the numbers: According to the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, Porter won 17 percent support statewide, while Schiff experienced a four-point drop to 16 percent since the previous survey in August.
- Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D–Oakland) support has increased to 9 percent.
- Former Los Angeles Dodger star Steve Garvey, who announced his candidacy in October and is likely the GOP’s frontrunner, has seen an increase in support from 7 percent to 10 percent.
Yes, but: Despite the gains made by Lee and Garvey, the poll indicates that 30 percent of voters are still undecided, making the March 5 primary race highly competitive.
- Factoring in the fundraising battle, advantage goes to Schiff, who has raised $5.9 million in the third quarter and has $32 million in campaign cash on hand.
- Porter has raised $3.4 million and has $12 million in cash on hand, while Lee has raised $1 million and has $1.3 million in cash on hand.
- Garvey’s campaign finances are not yet available.
On the right: The Republican field includes Garvey, businessman James Bradley, and lawyer Eric Early.
- If Republican voters consolidate their support around Garvey, he could emerge as a clear the frontrunner and secure a spot in the November runoff.