The Sun Voter Guide

Will Calif. legalize sports betting? Don’t bet on it, new poll says.

California’s competing sports betting ballot initiatives appear to be headed for defeat in November. 

According to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Tuesday, Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 only have 31 percent and 27 percent support, respectively. 

Proposition 26, the initiative that would legalize in-person sports betting at tribal casinos and racetracks, has 42 percent opposition. 

Proposition 27, the online sports betting initiative, has an even steeper hill to climb with 53 percent opposition. 

“These results suggest that the sports wagering initiatives are foundering in the face of the opposition advertising campaigns,” IGS co-director Eric Schickler said in a statement. “The lack of support among key demographic groups makes passage of each an uphill climb, at best.” 

Nearly all subgroups – Democrats, Republicans, men, women and all races – oppose Proposition 27. 

Voters under 30 is the only subgroup to register net support of the measure, at 44 percent in support and 33 percent in opposition. 

For Proposition 26, Republicans are against it at a nearly two-to-one margin while Democrats and Independents are also opposed but by narrower margins. 

Men are divided on Proposition 26, while women oppose it at a two-to-one margin. 

Similar to Proposition 27, young voters under 40 support Proposition 26 while those 65 and older oppose it at a nearly three-to-one rate. 

Governor’s race

California Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to be headed to a comfortable reelection. 

Newsom picked up 53 percent support in the poll, while his challenger Sen. Brian Dahle (R–Bieber) was down at 32 percent. 

Dahle’s largest lead comes from San Joaquin Valley voters – 47 percent compared to 39 percent for Newsom. 

But Newsom has massive leads in Los Angeles County (60-24), the Central Coast (61-29) and the San Francisco Bay Area (65-21), among smaller leads throughout San Diego County (49-34) and the North Coast/Sierras (45-39). 

A major issue for Dahle one month away from the election is name recognition. The poll found that 52 percent of voters are unfamiliar with him and could not offer an opinion of him when asked. 

On the other hand, 95 percent of voters could offer an opinion of Newsom, of which 52 percent viewed him favorably. 

Two other ballot initiatives could pass

Proposition 30 – the initiative to tax millionaires to fund air pollution reduction, infrastructure and wildfire prevention programs – polled at 49 percent support and 37 percent opposition. 

Democrats offer the proposition’s base with 69 percent in support. Republicans on the other hand oppose it at a 72 percent rate. 

The measure has caught considerable opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom as an attempt by rideshare firm Lyft to win a “corporate handout” as the state imposes a requirement that 90 percent of its customer miles traveled by 2030 come from zero-emission vehicles.

Proposition 31, which would uphold the 2020 state law that banned the sale of flavored tobacco products, polled at 57 percent support from voters compared to 31 percent in opposition.

Daniel Gligich is a reporter for The San Joaquin Valley Sun, focusing on Fresno State Athletics and the southern San Joaquin Valley. Email him at daniel.gligich@sjvsun.com.