Rep. Adam Schiff (D–Burbank) has the lead in the Senate race, according to a new poll from Politico and Morning Consult.
But Democrat support is fractured enough that Republicans appear to have a shot at advancing a candidate to the general election.
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The big picture: The latest poll from Politico of likely voters has Schiff leading the pack with 28 percent of support.
- His two main Democratic competitors, Rep. Katie Porter (D–Irvine) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D–Oakland), are behind at 17 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
- Former baseball All-Star Steve Garvey, who is running as a Republican, placed second in the poll at 19 percent.
- Most other polls up to this point had Schiff and Porter as the top two candidates, but Garvey’s late entrance into the race appears to be picking up some steam.
- Two other Republicans follow behind at seven percent each, attorney Eric Early and businessman James Bradley.
Go deeper: As has been the case with previous polls, Schiff’s support is largely from older voters and men.
- Voters who are 65 and older support Schiff at a 37 percent rate. Garvey has drawn 22 percent of that demographic, while Lee and Porter are at 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
- Schiff not only has the support of 54 percent of male Democrats, but he also leads with 35 percent of female Democrats, while Porter and Lee are behind at 29 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
- While Lee is the only Black candidate in the race, Black voters have only given her a 31 percent to 24 percent edge over Schiff.
What they’re saying: “Californians are becoming reacquainted with Steve Garvey and his commonsense, compassionate, consensus-building campaign to be our U.S. Senator,” said Matt Shupe, Garvey campaign spokesman. “In just two months, he has gone from campaign launch to second place, and as we approach the election, it’s clear that this race will be about beating Steve Garvey.”
