A new poll shows a slight, though statistically insignificant, lead for Democrats in two of the Central Valley’s most contested Congressional districts.
Long Beach State, USC and Cal Poly Pomona published their California Elections and POlicy Polls, showing good news from candidates Rudy Salas and Adam Gray, although their slight leads fall within the margin of error.
The big picture: Salas, a former Assemblymember from Bakersfield, is challenging Rep. David Valadao (R–Hanford) once again in November in Congressional District 22.
- According to the poll, Salas has 42.7% support, compared to 38.5% for Valadao, giving him a 4.2% lead.
- It’s a similar story in Congressional District 13, where Gray, a former Assemblymember from Merced, leads Rep. John Duarte (R–Modesto) at 44.4% to 42.4%.
- However, both polls are within the margin of error, meaning the races are statistical dead heats. The margin of error in the Congressional District 22 poll is +/-6.1%, while it is +/-5.6% in the Congressional District 13 poll.
Go deeper: The poll says voter turnout will likely determine if Valadao or Salas will win, since around 25% of likely voters did not vote in the district in 2022. Those new voters, according to the poll, slightly favor Salas.
- Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 7.3 points in the district.
- But Valadao retains a majority of people who voted in 2022 and also plan to vote in 2024. Undecided voters also favor Valadao when pushed at a 31.6% clip compared to 26.5% for Salas.
- Republicans are picking up a lot of ground at the top of the ticket in Congressional District 13. President Joe Biden won the district by nearly 11 points in 2020, but Harris only leads Trump by 3.3 points.
- The poll found that returning voters from 2022 favor Duarte, but new voters slightly favor Gray.
