Just four months after the 2024 elections, Republicans are already honing in on House districts currently represented by Democrats that they hope to flip to expand the GOP’s majority in the House.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) released a list on Monday of 26 Democrat-held seats across the country, including two in the Central Valley.
Who they’re targeting: The NRCC will go on the offensive to defeat Rep. Josh Harder (D–Tracy) in District 9 and Rep. Adam Gray (D–Merced) in District 13.
- Harder was first elected in 2018 in the former 10th District, defeating Jeff Denham as Democrats gained 41 seats across the nation.
- Harder won reelection in 2020 by over 10 points and then moved north in 2022 following redistricting and the retirement of former Congressman Jerry McNerney, opening up the 9th District, which was considered safer for Democrats. He was reelected by close to 10 points in 2022 but faced a much closer battle last year, defeating Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln by 3.6 points.
- In his second attempt at Congress, Gray defeated Rep. John Duarte (R–Modesto) last year by just 187 votes to take his seat in Congress.
- That was an improvement over his 2022 attempt, which saw him lose out to Duarte by 564 votes.
Who’s missing: One notable absence from the NRCC’s target list is Rep. Jim Costa (D–Fresno) in District 21.
- Costa, who was first elected in 2024, fended off Republican Michael Maher last year by 5.2 points. While Costa enjoyed a somewhat comfortable win, he lost some ground to Maher, who he defeated by 8.4 points in 2022.
Zoom out: The NRCC is targeting three other Democrat-held districts in California to flip.
- Rep. George Whitesides, Rep. Derek Tran and Rep. Dave Min all won close races last November, with Whitesides and Tran flipping their districts blue.
What they’re saying: “House Republicans are in the majority and on offense,” said NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson. “Meanwhile, vulnerable House Democrats have been hard at work demonstrating they are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans. Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.”
