New districts for the California State Senate were set earlier this week following the lengthy and arduous process by the California Redistricting Commission to draw the new map.
With the even numbered districts up for reelection next year, four of the Central San Joaquin Valley’s five state seats will be up for grabs.
Here’s a look at the State Senate districts for the Valley and the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the incumbents who line up closest to them, with data provided courtesy of the California Target Book:
The new 5th Senate District
Incumbent with most overlap: Susan Eggman (D–Stockton)
State Senator Susan Eggman, if she does not make a move for Congress, will have a solid Democrat base in Stockton-centric district.
Democrats hold a 15.86 percent edge over Republicans in the new 5th district, which largely comes from the commission drawing out a 2.4 percent GOP decrease from Eggman’s current 5th district.
Eggman will also find her new district to be much more supportive of President Joe Biden. Last year, her current district voted for Biden over Donald Trump at a 10.63 percent clip. That number rises to 20.26 percent in the new district.
The new 4th Senate District
Incumbent with most overlap: Andreas Borgeas (R–Fresno)
Although Fresno Republican Andreas Borgeas is exploring a run to replace Devin Nunes in next year’s special election, he could still serve two more terms before hitting the 12-year term limit.
The key difference in the new 4th district – compared to the current 8th district that Borgeas represents – is that his north Fresno base has been drawn out of the map.
While the district is focused on Modesto, Turlock, gold country and much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the partisan edge is similar to the current 8th district.
Borgeas currently enjoys a 5.48 percent Republican advantage, which drops slightly to 4.47 percent in the new district.
Trump held a 5.3 percent advantage over Biden from voters in the new 4th district in 2020.
The new 12th Senate District
Incumbent with most overlap: Shannon Grove (R–Bakersfield)
Just like House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is in line to pick up Republican votes in Fresno County, Senator Shannon Grove’s new district sees major GOP gains from an already red district.
Grove’s current Kern County and Tulare County based 16th district held an 11.84 percent Republican edge, but the new 12th district will see the GOP with a 17.98 percent advantage.
Trump also carried the new district by a 20.1 percent lead last year.
The new 16th Senate District
Incumbent with most overlap: Melissa Hurtado (D–Sanger)
Although the new 16th district will hold a sizable Democrat voter registration edge, Senator Melissa Hurtado will enter a bit more competitive district.
Her current 14th district offers a 19.16 percent Democrat lead, but that number drops to 12.3 percent in the new district.
Voters in the new district supported Biden at an 8.53 percent clip over Trump in 2020.
The new 14th Senate District
Incumbent with most overlap: Anna Caballero (D–Salinas)
The new 14th district could provide a new state senator given the fact that the new lines do not cross the western edge of the Valley.
Even though Senator Anna Caballero’s current 12th district overlaps the most with the new 14th district, her home in Salinas has been drawn firmly into the new 17th district that runs from Santa Cruz to Pismo Beach.
If Caballero decides to run for the Fresno-Merced seat, she’ll find favorable Democrat metrics awaiting her.
Democrats hold a 19.51 percent edge in the new district, and Biden won the region by 21.08 percent last year.