High-Speed rail faces $7 billion shortfall, could be delayed yet again

Already many years behind schedule and over budget, High-Speed Rail could be delayed further into the 2030s without a major funding boost.

High-Speed Rail will need at least $7 billion in more funding to complete the Merced to Bakersfield segment. 

The California Legislative Analyst’s Office told state lawmakers during an Assembly hearing on Wednesday that the project needs the $7 billion by June 2026 or risk another round of delays. 

The backstory: High-Speed Rail was approved by California voters in 2008 for an expected total cost of $33 billion. 

  • While the line connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles was pitched to voters to be completed by 2020, the High-Speed Rail Authority will not be able to start the Merced to Bakersfield segment until at least 2031, with no real projection for the rest of the line. 
  • The state estimated that the project’s total cost has ballooned to around $130 billion. 

The big picture: Helen Kerstein, the Principal Fiscal and Policy Analyst for the Legislative Analyst’s Office, told the Assembly Transportation Committee that the $7 billion figure that High-Speed Rail needs could be even greater, especially since the federal government is investigating how $4 billion of federal funding is being used. 

  • The High-Speed Rail Authority was expected to submit a project update to lawmakers during the hearing but instead said it will come in the summer. 
  • Kernstein reported that High-Speed Rail could come to a complete halt in 15 months without the funding increase. 

What they’re saying: “There is no specific plan to meet that roughly $7 billion gap, we also think there is some risk that gap could grow,” Kerstein told lawmakers. “This isn’t a way out in the future funding gap. This is a pretty immediate funding gap.” 

  • While Democrats have historically defended the project, some on the Transportation Committee voiced their concerns. 
  • “We have no plan, we have a good likelihood it’s going to get worse, and we have a short time to solve the problem,” said Asm. Steven Bennett (D–Ventura). “That’s not a good place for government to put itself into.” 
  • Asm. Cottie Petrie-Norris (D–Irvine) added, “The timing of the project review seems totally out of whack with when we need to be making decisions. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.”
  • Asm. Alexandra Macedo said she was in middle school when voters approved the project and that the state just needs to pull the plug at this point. She released a statement Thursday calling on Gov. Gavin Newsom to redirect $1 billion of cap-and-trading funding from High-Speed Rail to wildfire prevention and water infrastructure. 
  • “Voters have been hoodwinked by the High-Speed Rail Authority’s smoke and mirrors,” Macedo said. “The truth is: after 17 years and $13.7 billion spent, not a single foot of track has been laid. It is time to put taxpayers’ monies to better use.” 
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