The Congressional Budget Office has revised its 30-year population projection for the United States to 372 million residents, which is a 2.8% decrease from the previous year.
This adjustment is attributed to declining birth rates and reduced immigration expectations.
The big picture: Last year’s projection of 383 million people in the U.S. in 30 years has been lowered by 11 million residents, with the current U.S. population estimated at 341 million as of New Year’s Day, and expected to reach 350 million by year-end.
- Population growth is anticipated to decelerate over the next three decades, with an average yearly growth rate of 0.4% over the next 10 years, decreasing to 0.1% between 2036 and 2055.
- This reflects a marked slowdown, as the overall yearly growth rate over the next 30 years is projected to be less than a quarter of the rate observed between 1975 and 2024.
What we’re watching: The absence of immigration is predicted to result in a decline in the U.S. population starting in 2033, partially due to persistently low fertility rates and reduced immigration caused by a temporary suspension of asylum processing at the border, following an executive order in June.
- This reduction in projections is a result of the expectation of declining fertility rates over the next 30 years from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman, and decreased immigration influenced by an executive order in June. Replacement of the population at a rate of 2.1 births per woman is expected to be compromised.
Driving the news: The Congressional Budget Office issues these population projections annually to guide decisions on federal budgets and the economy, as well as to estimate Social Security payroll taxes and benefits.
- The Congressional Budget Office’s projections are higher than those made by the U.S. Census Bureau, as the CBO includes the resident population as well as U.S. citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for benefits, while the Census Bureau primarily counts the resident population. Additionally, the CBO’s projections anticipate higher immigration levels.
