Internal Poll: Bredefeld posts 22-point lead over Brandau in heated Fresno Supervisor battle

The Fresno City Council member dominated a four-man field in the March Primary, leading an incumbent by nearly 10 points. Polling shows he could get stronger in November.

The hotly-contested battle for a coveted seat on the Fresno County Board of Supervisors appears to be tilting in the direction of an ascendant challenger over his incumbent opponent.

That’s the takeaway from an internal poll released by the camp of Fresno City Councilman Garry Bredefeld, who boasts a 22-point lead over incumbent Fresno County Supervisor Steve Brandau in the latest survey, results released this morning found.


Driving the news: Bredefeld, termed out of his seat at Fresno City Hall at the conclusion of 2024, managed to close the March 5 Primary nearly 10 points ahead of Brandau for the north Fresno and Clovis Supervisorial seat.

  • A new survey from Signal Research, a pollster for Bredefeld’s camp, found that the Fresno City Councilman has largely doubled his support now that two other candidates – Fresno County Assessor-Recorder Paul Dictos and Bryce Herrera – are no longer in the running.

Numbers game: The survey, which interviewed 400 voters via live telephone calls to both landlines and cell phones, revealed Bredefeld expanded his lead over Brandau with a 51-29 advantage on a head-to-head ballot.

  • The survey also found Bredefeld garnering a hefty advantage among Republican voters in the conservative Supervisorial district, leading Brandau 59-31 percent among the GOP electorate.
  • Bredefeld also led Brandau amongst Democrats by a margin of 42-28 percent and no party preference voters by a margin of 42-30 percent.
  • The survey had a margin of error of 5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval.

What they’re saying: Bredefeld pollster Chris Baker of Signal Research said that the numbers continue a trend first established at the outset of the contest between the two Republican lawmakers nearly a year ago.

  • “With high name-ID and a strong profile with voters (55 favorable/23 unfavorable), Bredefeld is in an incredibly strong position to win the general election,” Baker said in a statement. “This first general election poll shows Bredefeld further consolidating his already strong advantage over Brandau from the primary to 22 points. In addition to his high name-ID and strong profile with voters, when Bredefeld’s strong fundraising lead over Brandau is also considered, there simply does not appear to be a viable path forward for Brandau to win in November. Bredefeld is clearly the overwhelming favorite to win the general election.”
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