Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) position as holder of some of the most coveted political ground in the nation isn’t changing anytime soon.
For Democrats, who have coveted taking him out and capturing his once deeply-blue seat that voted for Trump by 6 points last year, flipping the 22nd Congressional District is becoming a battle over warring factions of the party for who among three candidates should carry the banner into November 2026.
State of play: Valadao successfully fended off former Asm. Rudy Salas (D–Bakersfield) for the second consecutive election last year as he continues to vastly overperform in the 22nd District.
- Valadao defeated Salas by nearly 7 points despite the fact that Democrats held a 13.17% advantage in voter registration in the district, according to data from the California Target Book.
- That was a substantially larger victory than the 2022 election, which saw Valadao defeat Salas by three points.
- As Valadao’s performance got better over the two year stretch, Republicans have also gained major ground in voter registration. Democrats held a 17.35% advantage in 2022, down to 13.17% last year and is currently at 11.84%, according to the California Target Book.
- Republicans made up 26% of registered voters in the 22nd district in 2022. That share increased to 27.7% in 2024 and is up to 28.3% last year.
- Underpinning this shift in registration was the presidential vote, which saw Donald Trump capture 52% of the vote from district voters. The same voters supported Joe Biden in 2020 by 13% and Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 16.5% over Trump.
A familiar face: Despite heading in the wrong direction in the 2024 election, Salas is already eyeing a third attempt at facing Valadao.
- Salas formed a campaign committee last December shortly after the election and was the first Democrat to do so.
- But his support among Democrats may have waned after his poor performance last year, leading to party to start looking in a different direction
The progressive choice: Visalia Unified School District Trustee Randy Villegas appeared at a town hall event in Bakersfield last month with Rep. Ro Khanna (D–Fremont), where he hinted at a run against Valadao.
- Most of Villegas’s speech at the town hall was targeted against Valadao, earning praise from Khanna, who said he would like to see Villegas as a colleague in the House of Representatives.
- Villegas put rumors aside and officially launched his campaign for 22nd District on Monday.
- His entrance in the race will likely spell a war among Democrats, since he is affiliated with the Working Families Party and could position himself even further to the left from other Democrats as a progressive.
House Democrats pine for a better option: While Villegas may be the favored choice of those who look up to Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the establishment wing of the Democratic Party is looking to recruit Asm. Jasmeet Bains (D–Delano) into the race.
- Bains was first elected in 2022 and succeeded Salas in the 35th Assembly District.
- Sources based locally and in Washington D.C. who are familiar with the recruiting efforts confirmed to The Sun that Bains is actively being recruited by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and some California House Democrats to run against Valadao.
