U.S. firms were losing more than 11,000 jobs per week through late October, according to payroll processor ADP.
Despite an ADP report the previous week showing a total gain of 42,000 jobs in October, recent weekly data indicates weakening hiring trends in the second half of the month.
The big picture: ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, noted the labor market struggled to consistently produce jobs in late October.
- ADP recently began providing weekly payroll estimates to supplement its monthly jobs reports, offering a more real-time view of labor market trends.
Zoom out: The weakening job market data may support Federal Reserve policymakers’ considerations for further interest rate cuts.
- The Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at each of its last two meetings and investors anticipate another cut at the December 9-10 meeting.
Why it matters: ADP’s payroll data is used by some policymakers as an alternative or supplement to official government statistics, which have been limited due to the U.S. government shutdown.
- If the Senate’s temporary funding bill passes and the shutdown ends, official labor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics should resume in time for the Fed’s next meeting, even if some reports remain delayed.
