Oil prices inched higher on Monday, with Brent crude futures rising 41 cents to $68.16 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up 43 cents to $63.32 a barrel.
Market participants are watching for the outcome of upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear talks aimed at easing tensions, which could impact global oil supplies.
The big picture: Trading was thin due to holidays in the U.S. (Presidents’ Day), China, South Korea, and Taiwan (Lunar New Year).
- Last week, Brent fell about 0.5% and WTI dropped 1%, following U.S. President Trump’s suggestion of possible progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
State of play: The U.S. and Iran are scheduled for a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva, with Oman mediating, following meetings between Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
- Iran seeks economic incentives in any agreement, ranging from energy and mining investments to aircraft purchases.
- U.S. officials indicated readiness for potential prolonged military conflict if talks fail, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of retaliatory action against U.S. bases if attacked.
- Analysts note that escalating tensions could drive Brent prices to $80 a barrel, while reduced tensions could see prices drop to $60.
What we’re watching: OPEC+ is expected to consider increasing oil output at its March 1 meeting, following a three-month pause, possibly tempering price increases.
- China’s imports of Russian oil are projected to rise to a record in February, as India has cut back under U.S. pressure.
