In an otherwise uneven year for Congressional Republicans in the Golden State, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) proved to be state’s most nimble, and most resilient, members of Congress to occupy a swing seat.
Valadao prevailed in a rematch against former Asm. Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield), despite representing one of the bluest Congressional seats held by a Republican while helping drive Donald Trump to a victory in the district.
So how’d it happen?
The big picture: Valadao defeated Salas by over 11,000 votes and nearly seven percentage points in the November election.
- Valadao was reelected by a 53.4% to 46.6% vote, with the vote total at 89,484 for himself and 78,023 for Salas.
- It proved to be a significant shift from the 2022 election, which saw Valadao beat Salas 51.5% to 48.5% with around 65,000 less people voting.
- Democrats have around 50,000 more voters in the district than Republicans, holding an eye-popping, 16-point advantage.
Zoom out: Valadao’s strong performance came at a time when other Republicans around the state did not fare as well.
- The easiest comparison for Valadao came in Congressional District 13, where former Rep. John Duarte (R–Modesto) narrowly lost to Rep. Adam Gray (D–Merced).
- Gray beat Duarte by only 187 votes after losing to Duarte by 564 votes in 2022.
- Democrats flipped two other Republican-held seats in November as well. Rep. Mike Garcia (R–Santa Clarita) lost in the 27th district, and Rep. Michelle Steel (R–Cypress) lost in the 45th district.
Follow the money: Valadao’s win also came in spite of Salas and outside groups spending far more money in the race, according to data provided by the Federal Election Commission.
- The Salas campaign raised over $6.4 million and spent over $6.2 million, whereas the Valadao campaign raised and spent under $4.9 million.
- Outside groups spent $3.6 million on advertisements in support of Salas and $9.5 million opposing Valadao, totaling $13.1 million in favor of Salas.
- For Valadao, outside groups spent $4.4 million in advertisements supporting him and nearly $6.8 million opposing Salas, totaling $11.2 million in favor of the Congressman.
Reverse coattails: Valadao’s twelve years on the ballot for Congress has had a dramatic effect on the electorate in California’s 22nd district.
- After supporting Democratic presidential nominees by margins as large as Hillary Clinton’s 16.5% against Donald Trump in 2016, the 22nd Congressional District backed Trump by 5.8%, about a point behind Valadao’s margin of victory over Salas.
An understated key to victory: Valadao’s uncanny ability to resist heavy spending and splashy recruiting from Washington Democrats is largely owed to significant stability in his own operation.
- Since 2020, Valadao has leaned in heavily to the RNC’s infrastructure while adapting its messaging to the heavily Hispanic district in the southern San Joaquin Valley.
- He’s also benefited heavily from multiple veterans handling day-to-day operations, with chief of staff Andrew Renteria having led Valadao’s campaign through a rigorous 2016 election cycle, along with veteran campaign strategist Robert Jones, and marketing gurus Brandon Waters and Jeff Norwood.
- On the ground, the Hanford Republican’s field operations were led by grassroots wunderkind Brandon Herreman. Over the last 6 years, Valadao’s operation has leveraged data analytics to target voters’ history and understand issues close to home, turning into a robust get-out-the-vote operation.
- The Valadao camp’s successful and long-running GOTV operation has been described as a difference maker compared to the Golden State’s unsuccessful GOP incumbent defenses in 2024, including Duarte and Garcia.
What’s next: Valadao is expected to face a third rematch with Salas, who filed to run in the upcoming election mere weeks after his sizable defeat.
