Asm. Esmeralda Soria (D–Fresno) appears to have her first challenger in her 2026 reelection bid, or does she?
Former Merced Mayor Mike Murphy has formed a committee with the California Secretary of State’s Office for a campaign in the 27th Assembly District. But he may not be facing Soria come June or November of 2026.
Driving the news: Murphy was first elected to the Merced City Council in 2011 and elected as mayor in 2016, a position he served in through 2020.
- He has worked as an attorney following his time in office.
Flashback: This isn’t Murphy’s first time considering a run for an office with a larger seat than the City of Merced.
- In 2019, Murphy considered a run for Congress to challenge Rep. Jim Costa (D–Fresno), but ultimately decided against it.
Zoom in: Soria made the jump from the Fresno City Council to the Assembly in 2022, when she defeated former Merced County Sheriff Mark Pazin 51.3% to 48.7%.
- Soria grew her hold on the district last November when she beat out Joanna Garcia Rose 53.9% to 46.1%.
- But Assembly District 27 could be ripe for a flip in 2026 if certain trends continue. Per the California Target Book, voters in Assembly District 27 supported former President Joe Biden in 2020 but flipped to back President Donald Trump in 2024.
- In 2020, the district voted for Biden by a 13.6% margin. Last November, Trump won the district by 2.7%, even though Democrats hold a 12% advantage in voter registration in the district.
The big picture: Soria’s future may not be anchored to the Merced-Madera-Fresno Assembly district. At least one overlapping State Senate seat – held by Anna Caballero (D-Merced) – will be open due to term limits.
- Nelson Esparza, a former City Council colleague of Soria, declared his intention to run last Fall.
